{"id":47794,"date":"2023-04-12T23:39:39","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T21:39:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/?p=47794"},"modified":"2026-02-10T20:47:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T19:47:16","slug":"la-teoria-de-los-ciclos-economicos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/?p=47794","title":{"rendered":"La teor\u00eda de los ciclos econ\u00f3micos"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ttr_start\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-padding-top:20px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><h4>Interactivo que explica el concepto y el origen de los tres principales ciclos econ\u00f3micos descritos hasta la actualidad.<\/h4>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\">\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-2 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-1 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-two\"><h2 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-left fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;--fontSize:36;line-height:1.5;\">Presentaci\u00f3n<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><p>En teor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica, un ciclo es el conjunto de oscilaciones que experimenta la econom\u00eda en un periodo determinado. En un ciclo econ\u00f3mico se puede identificar una fase inicial de expansi\u00f3n, seguida de una fase de contracci\u00f3n, la cual genera una crisis econ\u00f3mica.<\/p>\n<p>Si bien se han descrito m\u00e1s tipos, tres son los ciclos econ\u00f3micos m\u00e1s conocidos: ciclo de Kitchin o de corta duraci\u00f3n, ciclo de Juglar o ciclo de duraci\u00f3n media y ciclo de Kondratiev o de larga duraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-2 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-2 fusion-sep-none fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-two\"><h2 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-left fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;--fontSize:36;line-height:1.5;\">Los ciclos<\/h2><\/div><style type=\"text\/css\">#fusion-chart-1 .fusion-chart-legend-wrap li:nth-child(1) span{color: #ffffff;}#fusion-chart-1 .fusion-chart-legend-wrap li:nth-child(2) span{color: #ffffff;}#fusion-chart-1 .fusion-chart-legend-wrap li:nth-child(3) span{color: #ffffff;}<\/style><div id=\"fusion-chart-1\" class=\"fusion-chart\" data-type=\"horizontalBar\" data-x_axis_labels=\"Ciclo de Kitchin (40 meses)|Ciclo de Juglar (10 a\u00f1os)|Ciclo de Kondratiev (40 a 50 a\u00f1os)\" data-x_axis_label=\"Duraci\u00f3n m\u00e1xima (a\u00f1os)\" data-show_tooltips=\"yes\" data-bg_colors=\"rgba(25,0,188,1)|rgba(25,0,188,1)|rgba(25,0,188,1)\" data-border_colors=\"rgba(25,0,188,1)|rgba(25,0,188,1)|rgba(25,0,188,1)\" data-border_size=\"1\" data-border_type=\"smooth\" data-chart_fill=\"off\" data-chart_point_style=\"circle\" data-chart_point_size=\"3\" data-chart_axis_text_color=\"rgba(102,102,102,1)\" data-chart_gridline_color=\"rgba(0,0,0,0.1)\"><div class=\"fusion-chart-dataset\" data-label=\"Data Set 1\" data-values=\"3.33|10|50\" data-background_color=\"rgba(0,188,212,1)\" data-border_color=\"rgba(0,188,212,1)\"><\/div><h4 class=\"fusion-chart-title\">Duraci\u00f3n de los ciclos<\/h4><div class=\"fusion-chart-inner\"><div class=\"fusion-chart-wrap\"><canvas><\/canvas><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-3 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-content-boxes content-boxes columns row fusion-columns-3 fusion-columns-total-3 fusion-content-boxes-1 content-boxes-clean-vertical content-left content-boxes-icon-on-top\" style=\"--awb-hover-accent-color:#000000;--awb-circle-hover-accent-color:transparent;\" data-animationOffset=\"top-into-view\"><div style=\"--awb-backgroundcolor:#ffffff;border-color:rgba(255,255,255,0);\" class=\"fusion-column content-box-column content-box-column content-box-column-1 col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4 fusion-content-box-hover content-box-column-first-in-row\"><div class=\"col content-box-wrapper content-wrapper-background link-area-link-icon icon-hover-animation-fade\" data-animationOffset=\"top-into-view\"><div class=\"heading icon-left\"><h3 class=\"content-box-heading fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"--h3_typography-font-size:20px;--fontSize:20;line-height:1.5;\">Ciclo de Kitchin<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><div class=\"content-container\">\n<p>Ciclo econ\u00f3mico de corta duraci\u00f3n:\u00a0alrededor de 40 meses.<\/p>\n<p>Se caracteriza por la fluctuaci\u00f3n de las existencias productivas de las empresas.\u00a0Joseph Kitchin consideraba que el origen de este ciclo era sicol\u00f3gico. Comenzaba con un aumento de la producci\u00f3n, que iba acompa\u00f1ado de un clima de optimismo. Una vez agotado dicho clima, se desencadenaban oleadas de pesimismo, las cuales derivaban en una acumulaci\u00f3n de excedentes.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"--awb-backgroundcolor:#ffffff;border-color:rgba(255,255,255,0);\" class=\"fusion-column content-box-column content-box-column content-box-column-2 col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4 fusion-content-box-hover \"><div class=\"col content-box-wrapper content-wrapper-background link-area-link-icon icon-hover-animation-fade\" data-animationOffset=\"top-into-view\"><div class=\"heading icon-left\"><h3 class=\"content-box-heading fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"--h3_typography-font-size:20px;--fontSize:20;line-height:1.5;\">Ciclo de Juglar<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><div class=\"content-container\">\n<p>Ciclo de duraci\u00f3n media, de unos diez a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p>Clement Juglar explicaba que el origen de este ciclo estaba en la adaptaci\u00f3n monetaria del sistema bancario a momentos de presi\u00f3n. Posteriormente, otros investigadores, relacionando los tres tipos de ciclo econ\u00f3mico (de Juglar, ciclo de Kitchin y ciclo de Kondratiev) \u00a0han descrito otros fen\u00f3menos sociales que podr\u00edan incidir en este ciclo y entre ellos se ha identificado la obsolescencia de los equipos de capital intalados en la industria en determinados contextos hist\u00f3ricos.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"--awb-backgroundcolor:#ffffff;border-color:rgba(255,255,255,0);\" class=\"fusion-column content-box-column content-box-column content-box-column-3 col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4 fusion-content-box-hover content-box-column-last content-box-column-last-in-row\"><div class=\"col content-box-wrapper content-wrapper-background link-area-link-icon icon-hover-animation-fade\" data-animationOffset=\"top-into-view\"><div class=\"heading icon-left\"><h3 class=\"content-box-heading fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"--h3_typography-font-size:20px;--fontSize:20;line-height:1.5;\">Ciclo de Kondratiev<\/h3><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><div class=\"content-container\">\n<div class=\"phenom-reactions\">\n<div class=\"js-reaction-piles reaction-piles-container last\">\n<div>Ciclo de larga duraci\u00f3n: 40 a 50 a\u00f1os.<\/div>\n<div>En su explicaci\u00f3n de este tipo de ciclo econ\u00f3mico, Nikolai Kondratiev tuvo en cuenta factores sociales y pol\u00edticos. En cambio, investigaciones posteriores han llamado la atenci\u00f3n sobre la posible incidencia del cambio tecnol\u00f3gico, relacionando el ciclo de Kondratiev tanto con el ciclo de Kitchin como con el ciclo de Juglar y, a la vez, con la teor\u00eda de las revoluciones cient\u00edficas.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-4 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-flip-boxes flip-boxes row fusion-columns-3 flip-effect-classic equal-heights\"><div class=\"fusion-flip-box-wrapper fusion-column col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4\"><div class=\"fusion-flip-box flip-right\" tabindex=\"0\"><div class=\"flip-box-inner-wrapper\"><div class=\"flip-box-front\" style=\"--awb-background-color-front:#ffffff;--awb-title-front-color:#000000;\"><div class=\"flip-box-front-inner\"><div class=\"flip-box-grafix flip-box-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%202048%202048%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/E64F5A95-682B-4E65-924D-EC46E0AD8B6E.jpeg\" width=\"2048\" height=\"2048\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><h2 class=\"flip-box-heading\">Joseph Kitchin<\/h2>(1861\u20131932)<\/div><\/div><div class=\"flip-box-back\" style=\"--awb-background-color-back:#ffffff;--awb-title-back-color:#000000;--awb-text-back-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.76);\"><div class=\"flip-box-back-inner\">\n<p>Fue a partir del an\u00e1lisis de procesos de negocios y finanzas de Inglaterra y de Estados Unidos que el empresario y estad\u00edstico brit\u00e1nico <strong>Joseph Kitchin<\/strong> desarroll\u00f3 su teor\u00eda del <em>ciclo econ\u00f3mico corto<\/em> o <em>ciclo de negocios<\/em>, que luego ser\u00eda m\u00e1s conocido por el apellido de su creador.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-flip-box-wrapper fusion-column col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4\"><div class=\"fusion-flip-box flip-right\" tabindex=\"0\"><div class=\"flip-box-inner-wrapper\"><div class=\"flip-box-front\" style=\"--awb-background-color-front:#ffffff;--awb-title-front-color:#000000;\"><div class=\"flip-box-front-inner\"><div class=\"flip-box-grafix flip-box-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%202048%202048%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/915D7E94-5AC5-4D45-BA8A-298409E76A4C.jpeg\" width=\"2048\" height=\"2048\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><h2 class=\"flip-box-heading\">Clement Juglar<\/h2>(1819-1905)<\/div><\/div><div class=\"flip-box-back\" style=\"--awb-background-color-back:#ffffff;--awb-title-back-color:#000000;--awb-text-back-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.76);\"><div class=\"flip-box-back-inner\">\n<p>El estad\u00edstico franc\u00e9s <strong>Clement Juglar<\/strong> observ\u00f3 que las inversiones financieras sol\u00edan variar en ciclos de 6 a 10 a\u00f1os. Con base en este descubrimiento desarroll\u00f3 la teor\u00eda del ciclo de duraci\u00f3n media que hoy en d\u00eda \u00a0lleva su nombre.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-flip-box-wrapper fusion-column col-lg-4 col-md-4 col-sm-4\"><div class=\"fusion-flip-box flip-right\" tabindex=\"0\"><div class=\"flip-box-inner-wrapper\"><div class=\"flip-box-front\" style=\"--awb-background-color-front:#ffffff;--awb-title-front-color:#000000;\"><div class=\"flip-box-front-inner\"><div class=\"flip-box-grafix flip-box-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%202048%202048%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%272048%27%20height%3D%272048%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BD6FFD62-B43F-4E7C-870E-7E29B6040AA5.jpeg\" width=\"2048\" height=\"2048\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><h2 class=\"flip-box-heading\">Nikolai Kondratiev<\/h2>(1892-1938)<\/div><\/div><div class=\"flip-box-back\" style=\"--awb-background-color-back:#ffffff;--awb-title-back-color:#000000;--awb-text-back-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.76);\"><div class=\"flip-box-back-inner\">\n<p>El economista ruso<strong> Nikolai Kondratiev<\/strong> fue un te\u00f3rico de la nueva pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica sovi\u00e9tica. Analizando el funcionamiento de las econom\u00edas capitalistas occidentales lleg\u00f3 a la conclusi\u00f3n de que \u00e9stas se ve\u00edan afectadas por ciclos de unos 40 o 50 a\u00f1os, observaci\u00f3n que le sirvi\u00f3 de base para formular la teor\u00eda de los <em>ciclos de larga duraci\u00f3n<\/em>.<del><sup id=\"cite_ref-Shwarek_3-0\" class=\"reference\"><\/sup><\/del><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"ttr_end\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27291,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_vp_format_video_url":"","_vp_image_focal_point":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[6410],"tags":[],"categorias":[],"etiqueta":[],"class_list":["post-47794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47794"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55678,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47794\/revisions\/55678"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27291"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47794"},{"taxonomy":"categorias","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategorias&post=47794"},{"taxonomy":"etiqueta","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.carolinacampalans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fetiqueta&post=47794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}